GOP gains edge in Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, and Pennsylvania as Democrat registration and turnout decline.

Republicans Gain Ground in Voter Rolls Ahead of 2024 Victory

A new bipartisan analysis by the American Association of Political Consultants (AAPC) reveals that Republicans outperformed Democrats in voter registration across four critical battleground states—Arizona, North Carolina, Nevada, and Pennsylvania—between the 2020 and 2024 elections. The data was unveiled at the 2025 Pollie Awards in Colorado Springs, Colorado.

Conducted in collaboration with Data Trust and Target Smart, partisan data firms aligned with the GOP and Democrats respectively, the study highlights a marked shift in voter alignment toward the Republican Party. The share of registered Democrats declined in all four states, while Republican and unaffiliated voter registrations increased. In three of the four states, unaffiliated voters accounted for the largest rise.

Turnout and Demographics Reflect GOP Expansion

Turnout also declined across both parties, but Democrats saw a slightly larger drop than Republicans in three of the states, with Arizona showing the most significant gap. Despite the overall decline, the GOP’s efforts to mobilize voters appear to have paid off across several key demographics.

“The Trump campaign and the Republican Party deserve considerable recognition for their voter registration success and turnout efforts,” said Kyle Roberts, the incoming Republican AAPC Board President. “The party should try to build on these successes.”

Democratic AAPC Board President Larry Huynh admitted his party underestimated the challenge. “The data was pretty clear that the Democrats were caught off guard,” Huynh said. “We should all learn from this and take a deeper dive into our voter registration and turnout operations.”

Demographic analyses showed consistent Republican gains among Black, Hispanic, and rural voters. These advances were reinforced by RNC outreach efforts such as “Black Americans for Trump” and “Latino Americans for Trump” offices across battleground states. The GOP also expanded its “Protect the Vote” initiative, involving over 160,000 volunteers and more than 100 lawsuits related to election integrity.

President Donald Trump’s 2024 victory in all seven battleground states—including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—was underpinned by this grassroots momentum. Republicans not only held the House but reclaimed the Senate as well.

According to Fox News Voter Analysis, 70% of voters in 2024 felt the country was on the wrong track. The economy and immigration were top concerns, with Trump linking inflation to the Biden administration and vowing to secure the border on day one of his new term.

While Republicans celebrate strategic voter outreach, Democrats are facing renewed scrutiny. A new book by CNN’s Jake Tapper and Axios’ Alex Thompson, released this week, alleges a cover-up of Biden’s cognitive decline and paints a bleak picture of Democratic missteps in 2024.

As Democrats analyze their shortcomings, the AAPC data offers a clear narrative: Republican registration, turnout, and message discipline gave them the edge in the states that decided the 2024 election. Whether Democrats can rebound in time for 2026 remains a looming question.